Within the framework of its Statistical Capacity Building (StatCaB) Programme, SESRIC organised a Training Course on “Forecast Modelling” for the benefit of the 19 statisticians, financial analysts, accountants and HR specialists working at the Agency for Sustainable and Operative Social Provision (DOST Agency) of Republic of Azerbaijan on 11-13 March 2025 through an online video conferencing platform.

Senior experts at the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) conducted the training course with objectives to enhance understanding of key metrics that impact predictive modelling; to help participants create customised forecasting models; and to introduce best practices for collecting and managing data for accurate forecasts.

The training course included hands-on sessions and covered the following topics:

• Introduction to Forecasting
• Regression Analysis
  • Simple and Multiple linear regression models
  • Regression diagnostics
  • Stationary in Time Series
• Seasonality
  • Decomposition based methods (classical, STS, X11 and etc.)
  • Regression based methods (regression with seasonality, ARIMA)
• Other Forecasting Methods
  • Vector Auto Regression (VAR)
  • Lasso and Ridge regression
• A Case Study
  • Hands-On Model Building
  • In sample and out of sample forecasting
  • Model performance evaluation (RMSE etc.)
  • Effective Communication of Results (techniques for presenting results to management and tips for creating clear reports and visualizations).

For more information on the SESRIC Statistical Capacity Building (StatCaB) Programme, please visit: http://www.oicstatcom.org/statcab.php

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